August's CPI report still contains plenty of unpleasantries, but it's likely tolerable enough to allow the Fed to cut rates next week. Using private market data to supplement the CPI, we estimate core inflation was about 1.6% in August, well below the Fed's 2% target.

What did August's Jobs Report from the BLS say this morning, and how does the government data compare to labor market data sources from the private sector?

Now that we're mostly through 2Q reporting season for retailers, what can we say about retail sales performance in the United States? And how does our publicly traded company "hard" data compare to the Census Bureau's "soft data"?

Our last GNI model note suggested economic growth in 2Q25 was not only better than 1Q, but also better than what the gov't statistics from the BEA were indicating as well. What does our latest update say?

What can we say about consumer spending now that summer is (almost) over?

What is the government data saying about consumer price inflation in July?

What is the Stock Market Economist's Gross National Income Model saying about U.S. Economic Growth in 2Q25?

What is the Stock Market Economist's Gross National Income Model saying about U.S. Economic Growth in 2Q25?

What does data from publicly traded companies reporting "off-cycle" say about economic growth in 2Q?

What did reports from publicly traded restaurant operators and distributors say about spending at restaurants in 1Q25?

What does reported data and commentary from publicly traded restaurant companies say about the labor market?

What are publicly traded Human Capital Management firms saying about the labor market? And does it corroborate or contradict what the gov't data is saying?

Visa and Mastercard reported 1st calendar quarter earnings. Did their data validate or contradict the consumer spending insights we gained from the banks?

What is the data from publicly traded banks telling us about the health of the American consumer?

What are publicly traded Human Capital Management firms saying about the labor market? And does it corroborate or contradict what the gov't data is saying?

Macro data from PAYX, ADP, FI, INTU, BAC and Gusto can give us a good look into the state of small business. What is their data telling us?

Visa and Mastercard reported 4th calendar quarter earnings. Did their data validate or contradict the consumer spending insights we gained from the banks?

What can 4Q bank earnings tell us about consumer spending?